Counter Strike Global Offensive

Betting on CSGO – Counter Strike Global Offensive

What are the types of bets on CSGO ?

What is a CSGO moneyline bet?

Moneyline betting is the most popular form of betting on CSGO, as it requires the least specific knowledge for the bettor. For those who are not familiar with sports betting, the moneyline bet means betting on which team will win the match. In CSGO, each match can consist of up to five cards.

The match formats are best-of-one, best-of-three or best-of-five, depending on the event or tournament, and there are some fringe formats of two-map matches where draws are possible. Moneyline betting is popular due to the ease of betting, but it is more difficult to beat the wager for a particular line in esports.

In regular sports betting, the odds are 10-15 cents because the models used by bookmakers are more consistent and can predict the results more accurately. In esports, bookmakers are far less confident, and it's not uncommon to see massive bets offered at a wide range of prices.

In the NBA, for example, it's unusual for a particular team to be considered a -1000 favorite against an opponent, but in CSGO it's a semi-regular occurrence. For example, there was a recent game during the BLAST Premier: Spring tournament where Astralis – the best team in the world – was considered a -2000 favorite against Complexity Gaming. If there had been no vig on that line, Complexity would have been a +2000 underdog, but they were listed at +805. This speaks to some uncertainty, as over 5% of the implied probability is not accounted for. That being said, it is easiest to bet on the moneyline to win a game, but due to the size of the bets and the uncertainty of the models in esports, the expected return is lower.

What are CSGO bets with spreads?

Spreads in CSGO are usually quoted as either a round spread or a spread for the rounds separating two teams on a given map. You won't find spreads at most sportsbooks, but there are a few that offer them, and it can be quite lucrative to focus on them if you find one that does. As mentioned earlier, CSGO is a game with a fixed number of rounds and, in most cases, extra time if there is a tie. So, since it's a best-of-30 contest, the smallest round difference on a 16-14 map is two if there's no overtime. Of course, that means the biggest difference would be a 16-0 win by one team, but a perfect card is extremely rare in the professional scene and only occurs in very one-sided matches. Usually you see a final score of 16-10, with the most common distribution being 5.5 cards.

I'll get into some ways to exploit this later, but if you pay attention to how the in-game economy is shaping up at the start of a match, you can make some informed decisions about the possible distribution of a card long before the bookies adjust a line one way or the other. The ROI you can earn from betting on spreads is one of the most consistent ways to build your bankroll.

How do I bet on CSGO maps?

Within the CSGO betting universe, betting on map winners is one of the most lucrative avenues you can take. This is due to the vast amount of data available on HLTV.org, showing everything a savvy bettor needs to make informed decisions as opposed to the more macro-based algorithm that betting sites use. Although the differences in skill and teamwork between squads can be huge, there are still inefficiencies and advantages to be taken advantage of at the map level, as even the best teams in the world struggle on certain maps within the rotation.

However, since maps are independent instances, the probability of a team winning on a map can be very different compared to the overall victory in the game. For example, let's say a team has a 60% chance of winning a match (-150 favorite), and the odds of winning the first map are also -150. If the team has to play on a map they don't know or haven't done well on in the last three months, those odds are very exploitable because they should actually be underdogs, not favorites, on that map. A team that is listed as a -150 favorite and wins only 35% of its games on the Dust2 map should be at +200. So it's easy to see how big the advantage can be by paying attention to the details of a team's win rates on each map.

How to bet on big CSGO events?

Big events in CSGO, and in the world of Esports in general, are some of the most exciting and awe-inspiring spectacles to witness, and I'm serious when I say that I find them by far more exciting than any traditional sporting event. Especially in CSGO, where there are breaks in the action and a level of excitement not found in the vast majority of competitive titles, the atmosphere is simply electrifying. The stadiums and event centers are regularly filled to capacity at these events, and the best of the best are present, competing for extraordinary prize money.

There are usually two major tournaments per year, with only one taking place in 2020 due to COVID-19.

In 2019, we had the StarLadder Berlin Major and the Intel Extreme Masters XIII – Katowice Major. Astralis was the winner of both majors in 2019, while AVANGAR finished second at StarLadder and ENCE was second in Katowice. In fact, Astralis has finished first in the last three Major events, which is part of the reason they were considered the best team in the world for so long.

This year, the ESL One: Rio 2020 Major will take place in Rio de Janerio, with a grand prize of $2,000,000 up for grabs. Teams have been competing in qualifying tournaments throughout the year to secure a spot in Rio and a chance at glory and life-changing prizes.

How to be successful in CSGO betting?

What is the best way to learn how to play CSGO?

By far the most important thing to know about CSGO if you plan on betting regularly is how the economy works in the game and what effect it has on getting rounds together. In a regular FPS game – such as Call of Duty – your in-game energy levels are based on the equipment you choose before the game starts. That's fine for a fast-paced, non-stop game like COD, but CSGO is based on a system where you buy your weapons, armor, and supplies before each round. A team that does well has more money to spend before each round, while a team that loses has less money. This directly leads to advantages in weapons, armor, and equipment that make it harder for the losing team to control the game and hold their own in gunfights. The kicker is that you don't have to spend your economy before each round, and that's where we get the idea of saving rounds and hoarding cash to buy better weapons to try and turn the tide.

At the beginning of the game, when the economy is not yet established, the round counts are usually the highest. The first round – a pistol round – sets the baseline for both sides, and in the second round a team can play conservatively and save without buying anything at all, or it can “force” and buy cheap weapons to try to kill the opposing team and collect weapons while putting pressure on their economy. However, if the team that forces this round loses, it has set itself up to have very little money available for the next two rounds. As a result, a team that loses a pistol round, then forces and loses that round as well, very often starts the game down 0-4.

It doesn't take much to realize that this understanding is well suited to betting on the over/under number of rounds played, round distribution, and outright card wins if you know what to look for in round two. Once you understand the economics, there's not much you need to know about the game, as it's a fairly typical first-person shooter. But if you know how it works, you'll be a big step ahead of the average bettor.

What are important CSGO stats?

Occasionally you'll find player props on over/unders for kill counts, but that doesn't happen often, and knowing stats won't do you much good as a bettor. It's a good idea to get an overview of teams when doing your research, and to get an idea of kills per round and deaths per round, but that's more to help you gauge a team's skill and ability to win matches than information that will help you place bets. Especially considering that performance levels can vary so drastically, it's quite difficult to apply statistics to different leagues.

For example, in one situation, two A-class teams may be competing against each other – Astralis and G2 Esports, for example – and the kills, deaths, and assists of both teams are applicable to the competition because they have a similar class. Both teams have two or more players with more than .70 kills per round and +.60 or fewer deaths per round, and we can trust those numbers because they often play teams in the upper tiers. But when an A-tier team – perhaps G2 Esports – is up against a B-tier team like TyLoo, the KDA (kills, deaths, and assists) per round doesn't scale as well. A team like TyLoo may have a few players with high kill-per-round numbers, but when they play against much better competition, those numbers will drop aggressively because the opposing team knows much more about the game and their own team composition, allowing them to punish a weaker team's mistakes more harshly. This will result in a much worse KDA score than in the past.

Who are important players and organizations in CSGO?

The list of the best teams and players in the world is an ever-changing ladder of promotion and relegation, as teams, squads and playing styles are updated every few months. Currently, the best team in the world is Natus Vincere – also known as NaVi – and they also happen to have the best CSGO player in the world: S1mple. This kind of correlation doesn't always occur, as the best team in the world was Astralis for a long time, while S1mple was still the best individual player. These rankings are based on a scoring system from HLTV.org and are created over time, based on both current form and the level of competition each team faces. Other notable teams and their best players are:

G2 Esports – Hunter and KennyS
Astralis – Device and Magisk
Vitality – ZyWoO and Electronic
Fnatic – Brollan and KRIMZ

The top 20 or so teams in the world will be shuttling back and forth on who will be promoted and who will be relegated. Astralis was a fixture at #1 until recently when several regular players dropped out and were replaced by substitutes. These changes in the squad quickly dropped them to fourth place. Of course, this was a calculated move that allowed the team to rest and be fresh for the big tournaments towards the end of the year, but it's still remarkable how quickly a team can fall off when not playing at the absolute highest level.

What are important elements of a CSGO betting process?

There are a few things that I think are important to any process. I usually look at map pick and ban rates on HLTV and try to get an idea of how often a team wins against weaker competition.

What are the win rates like on the CSGO map?

Map-based win rates are so incredibly important when it comes to penalizing CSGO betting sites that I've even developed an algorithm that gives me a clear view of map possibilities in both best-of-three and best-of-five formats. If I feel that the cards played give one team a 20% winning advantage over the other when the moneyline is close, that gives me a big advantage over the betting sites.

How are efficiencies ranked for CSGO favorites?

I apply the method of examining a team's efficiency against weaker opponents not only in my models for CSGO odds, but also in traditional sports. An interesting phenomenon occurs when a far superior team faces an inferior team during the regular season and we see that the favorite's performance leaves a little to be desired, while the underdog is strong enough to win the game narrowly or even outright. The Steelers are a great example of an NFL team that is vastly outmatched against less talented opponents, and this kind of thing isn't uncommon in CSGO either. The top teams in the world that get invited to every Dreamhack and ESL Pro League tournament don't necessarily have to worry about winning games against the lower tiers, as it doesn't hurt their chances of getting invited to the big tournaments.

So when something goes wrong in a match against a much inferior opponent, the top teams sometimes use this as a kind of training, taking the opportunity to do unorthodox things and see what situations they can wriggle out of, what we call “limit testing”. With that in mind, it's important to know which teams are taking these games seriously and which teams are limit testing against weaker opponents to make sure you don't put money on a big favorite that won't give it their all.

How do I manage my “bankroll?”

How do I create and maintain a process?

One of the most difficult skills for a bettor to learn is how to properly allocate bets and manage their bankroll. A lot of people just put $5 or $10 here and there and bet for fun, which is fine if you don't plan on making any extra income from betting. It's a fantastic way to pass a Saturday by getting involved in the game and getting some action watching Esports games. However, if you want to actually make a return, you should know some important aspects of bankroll management.

First, pay attention to the actual dollar amount in your bankroll! Set a specific amount that you can reliably bet on CSGO each month, so that you have a base to base the percentages off of. Whether it's $100 or $100,000, just make sure you know how much you'll be playing with each month.

Next, be clear about your risk tolerance and create a system that allows you to set specific and static percentages for certain types of bets. Many companies quote bets in “units,” which is fine, but you need to know what your specific unit is. If you really want to put yourself in a position to build your bankroll, you should play based on a Kelly Criterion betting percentage calculator. This is a formula that guides you to place a dynamic amount for each bet based on the remaining bankroll. Regardless of what system you use, it is essential to have one.

The last point I want to mention here is understanding the consequences and circumstances associated with your bets and what needs to happen for them to pay off. Often you will not have just one bet on any given day, and if you have multiple bets, some of them may be interdependent. By tracking your bets and the success of each bet, you can avoid the pitfalls of hedging your own actions and diminishing your return on correlated bets. An example of this is that you should not bet on the excess number of rounds for a particular card while hitting the excess number of rounds distribution, as the excess number of rounds distribution is often negatively correlated with the excess number of total rounds played.

In any case, managing the bankroll is all about understanding your tolerance as well as your ability to track and maximize ROI. So stay calm and don't be tempted to destroy your bankroll with a bet you shouldn't make.

What is the history of skin betting in CSGO?

A brief overview of the history of skins betting.

One thing we should talk about, as it has given the industry and esports betting as a whole a bad reputation, is skins betting. Betting on skins was a very popular way to bet in CSGO for a long time, and involved betting on skins for in-game weapons that can be purchased on the Steam marketplace instead of money. If you win the game, you get the skins that others put into the pot. Betting on skins itself wasn't necessarily the problem. The problem was that minors were involved in the process and had the opportunity to bet skins, and that the skins cost money, which meant that minors were indirectly betting real money on games in an unregulated way.

Of course, this is illegal and not okay, but the practice was disguised because no one is technically betting “real money” when using an item purchased with credits on the Steam marketplace. If this process was regulated and ensured that only users old enough to play were allowed to participate, things would have been different, but considering the average age of players and the fact that it was a completely unregulated sequence, this was a serious issue that caused a whole lot of problems.

Nowadays, there are significant restrictions on trading skins or sending skins to friends as a direct result of the skin betting that takes place. Most swapping and giving away of skins now takes place over the course of days to ward off those who wanted to sell their skins quickly for a profit.